In-depth re-analysis of the South Antarctic Krill Industry and Tharos’ 2003-pricing mathematical tool was performed. Porter and SWOT analysis remain strong on the high-competingforces affecting the same market niche where krill meal and krill oil end-producers target as well as many other competing ingredients. For these purposes, the best decision-making tool is needed in order to find the appropriate pricing strategy for such products, the ones that face stiff competition for the same reasons; vast competing ingredients. All actual krill operators were analyzed as well as key buyers, and with them the reasons why to produce one end-product and not the other and why to purchase one against the other. With an average inclusion rate of 5% (w/w dry basis) in meal (rather similar for krill oil), such low value does not allow mistakes on the proper pricing policy each operator should have. The price-predictive model for krill meal and oil uses an econometrical model that include relevant competing ingredients, fuel prices and USA’s GDP through the “ What is the “ What ismARMA?? In statistics, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, sometimes called Box-Jenkins models, are typically applied to time series data. Given a time series of data, the ARMA model is a tool for understanding and, perhaps, predicting future values in this series. The model consists of two parts, an autoregressive (AR) part and a moving average (MA) part. The model is usually then referred to as the ARMA(p,q) model where p is the order of the autoregressive part and q is the order of the moving average part. On a 5-year time-series (2010-2014), feed-grade krill meal and feed-grade krill oil prices remain almost constant or slightly facing a declining curve. Applied this to an 8.000-GRT sized factory trawler handling a pre-set krill meal and oil layout, NPV figures, subject to several other working parameters, can be as low as a US$30MM loss up to a significant (though difficult to achieve) US$120MM gain. An “average-studied-case” a NPV of US$15MM is achievable with an IRR value of 45%. |